Government measures and improved feed supplies have positively reversed pork production expectations. However, production gains are not likely to replace 30 percent lower TRQ quantities in 2012, according to the latest GAIN Report from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service.
Summary
In 2011, sow stocks reflect newly available data. The stronger pig crop demonstrates pork producers’ reaction to easing feed prices, expectation of increased government support, and a larger-than-expected share of agricultural enterprises controlling swine stocks. While live swine imports for slaughter is relatively flat, imports of feeder pigs and breeding stock is up. This results in a reversed outlook for 2011 production. The swine industry’s resurgence in 2011 should carry over to 2012 as government policies become even more favourable. Despite Brazil’s current absence from the market, significant over-quota trade and a strong increase in quota-exempt pork drive FAS/Moscow’s increased import estimate. In 2012, a 150,000-metric ton (MT) reduction in TRQ will severely limit available supply and prices will rise; however, these conditions may only mildly stimulate increased over-quota and quota-exempt pork trade.
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